Que: The government has extended the deadline for the implementation of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM). How do you view the current supply situation for domestic cells?

Ans: We believe the domestic cell supply situation is adequate. India currently has significant module manufacturing capacity, while the requirement for DCR-compliant cells is considerably lower. For the coming year, we expect DCR cell demand to remain within the available domestic capacity.

Current domestic solar cell production is ample to meet the requirements of programmes such as PM Surya Ghar and PM-KUSUM, as well as demand from the C&I segment. At the same time, utility-scale projects, including CPSU projects, typically have longer development and execution cycles of around 18–24 months. This provides sufficient time for additional domestic cell capacity to come onstream as future utility-scale demand materialises.

Que: Is the current ALMM framework primarily supportive of large players, given that cell manufacturing is still developing in India?

Ans: The policy framework is designed to encourage greater integration across the solar manufacturing value chain. The successive stages of the policy provide a roadmap for companies that want to build capabilities in cell and upstream manufacturing.

The framework is technology-agnostic and does not, in our understanding, favour any particular company. It establishes a pathway for manufacturers to participate in and supply in the domestic market.

Que: India continues to depend on China for some components. Is the push towards ingot and wafer manufacturing happening too early?

Ans: The broader objective of these policies is to build a self-reliant solar manufacturing ecosystem in India. If India remains dependent on imported cells and modules indefinitely, it will be difficult to develop manufacturing at the required scale.

China currently benefits from very large manufacturing capacities, established supply chains, economies of scale and relatively lower financing costs. India is building these capabilities progressively, and the domestic industry has only recently begun expanding cell manufacturing at scale.

At present, India has strong availability of several components required for solar manufacturing. The key areas where imports continue to play an important role include wafers and, further upstream, polysilicon.

As India moves towards greater upstream integration, more of these capabilities can be developed domestically. Ultimately, the objective is to build a robust Indian supply chain that supports energy security and reduces dependence on any single country.

Que: Once ALMM requirements are implemented, what impact could they have on solar cell prices?

Ans: There is likely to be some price difference between Indian-made and Chinese-made cells during the transition. Chinese manufacturers benefit from significant scale, established infrastructure and lower costs of capital.

However, as Indian manufacturers expand their capacity and achieve greater economies of scale, this price differential can gradually narrow. Increased competition within the Indian market should also contribute to greater cost efficiency.

Que: TOPCon is currently a dominant technology. How do you see the technology mix evolving?

Ans: India is developing a healthy mix of cell technologies. TOPCon currently represents a significant share of domestic cell manufacturing capacity, with around 20 GW of capacity according to our understanding. PERC also has substantial capacity, at approximately 15 GW.

The availability of multiple technologies gives module manufacturers flexibility to source cells according to their requirements, including specifications and dimensions.

Que: What should smaller module manufacturers do to remain relevant as the industry moves towards greater integration?

Ans: The market is evolving towards greater integration across modules, cells and upstream manufacturing. Companies will need to assess their business models and adapt to changing market requirements.

For manufacturers, the broader direction is towards developing capabilities across the supply chain. Companies that understand changing demand, align their investments with the policy environment and adapt their strategies accordingly will be better positioned to participate in the industry's next phase of growth.

Que: What additional policy measures would you like to see from the government in the coming years?

Ans: India already has a strong policy pipeline for developing domestic solar manufacturing. Continued implementation of these measures can help the country strengthen its manufacturing capabilities and move towards greater self-reliance across the solar value chain.

Que: How important is policy stability for the solar manufacturing industry?

Ans: Policy stability is extremely important for long-term investment decisions. Manufacturers across the value chain plan their investments based on the regulatory roadmap and expected market conditions.

A predictable policy environment provides greater confidence to investors considering investments in modules, cells and upstream manufacturing. The industry therefore needs to work within a clear and consistent policy framework as it builds capacity.

The transition towards ALCM and greater domestic manufacturing should be viewed as part of a longer-term roadmap. Companies need to plan their investments and business strategies with this direction in mind.

Que: What role can industry associations play in supporting India's solar manufacturing growth?

Ans: Industry associations play an important role in bringing together the collective voice of the sector and engaging with government and other stakeholders.

At ISMA, our role is to build consensus on common industry priorities and present a balanced perspective on policy, manufacturing, technology and supply-chain issues.

The objective is to support informed policymaking and strengthen India’s solar manufacturing ecosystem.