Shell India Unveils Energy Transition Scenarios at WSDS 2026, Outlines Path to Secure and Low-Carbon Future

Shell India launched its latest Shell Scenarios Sketch, titled ‘India’s energy transition in a security-focused age’, at the TERI’s World Sustainable Development Summit (WSDS) 2026. The India focused analysis examines how the country can meet rapidly rising energy demand while strengthening security, affordability, reliability and decarbonisation.  

The sketch outlines three possible futures shaped by geopolitics, digitalisation and climate imperatives. Two scenarios - Archipelagos and Surge – reflect current global pressures, assessing energy security through the lens of national security, self-reliance, economic resilience and technological advancement. The third scenario, Horizon, presents a normative scenario centred on climate and environmental security, aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Together, these scenarios offer a structured framework to support policymakers, businesses and civil society in making informed choices to enhance India’s long-term competitiveness and resilience through the energy transition.  

Releasing the Shell Scenario Sketch, Mansi Madan Tripathy, Senior Vice President, Shell Lubricants, APAC and Chairperson, Shell Group of Companies in India, said, “India stands at a defining moment in its energy transition. As demand rises alongside economic growth, both the challenge and the opportunity lie in strengthening energy security and resilience while advancing affordability and decarbonisation. The India Sketch is intended to broaden perspectives and support informed, systemlevel decisionmaking. By exploring multiple possible futures, we aim to contribute to building a more resilient, competitive, inclusive and net-zero aligned energy system for the country. As a long-term and trusted partner, Shell remains committed to delivering reliable, affordable and innovative energy solutions for India.”  

India’s energy demand has increased by nearly 40 percent over the past decade, driven by rapid economic expansion and population growth, and its role in global energy markets is set to expand further, with demand projected to surpass that of the United States in the 2040s and China in the 2060s. The country’s transition from imported fossil fuels to domestically produced renewable energy is strengthening energy independence and security while advancing decarbonisation goals. Having already exceeded earlier climate commitments, India is expected to announce a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2035, guided by a proposed seven-point strategy to shape policy, planning and investment over the next decade. Renewable energy deployment and electrification have accelerated significantly, with electricity’s share of total energy demand now comparable to advanced economies. Solar and wind power, which accounted for around 3 percent of final electricity consumption in 2015, now contribute over 20 percent and are projected to supply 59 percent or more by 2050 across scenarios.

Low-carbon fuels are expected to play a crucial role in hard-to-electrify sectors, supported by India’s strong bioenergy potential and favourable policy framework. Although the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix is projected to peak this decade and decline thereafter, absolute consumption may continue to rise in some scenarios as overall energy demand doubles over the next two to three decades. Natural gas and LNG are positioned as key transition fuels, with demand expected to grow by 50 percent or more in the coming decade to support grid reliability, industrial and residential consumption, and rising AI-driven electricity demand. Carbon removal solutions, including geological storage and natural sinks, will be essential to address residual emissions that are difficult and costly to abate.

On the demand side, industry and manufacturing are expected to drive the largest increases in energy consumption, necessitating deeper structural transformation to compete in global low-carbon markets. This shift will require supportive policies such as carbon pricing, scaling of low-carbon fuels like renewable hydrogen, and wider adoption of technologies such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Transport electrification is set to accelerate steadily, with electric vehicle adoption projected to displace 41 percent to 58 percent of oil demand by 2050 across scenarios. Meanwhile, the aviation and marine sectors are exploring cleaner alternatives, including Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and LNG. In the buildings sector, a shift towards electrification and natural gas in residential use reflects a move away from traditional biomass, while energy consumption in commercial buildings is expected to rise two to four times, driven by growth in services and increasing demand from data centres.

Sharing further insights on the report, Mallika Ishwaran, Chief Economist, Shell, said “India’s energy demand is accelerating and meeting it strategically and securely will require decisive choices and long-term vision. Our new Shell Scenarios Sketch, ‘India’s energy transition in a security-focused age’, provides a structured view of those choices through three scenarios Archipelagos, Surge and Horizon shaped by geopolitics, digitalisation and climate imperatives. By mapping these futures, we aim to help policymakers and businesses navigate uncertainty and strengthen India’s energy resilience in the decades ahead.”  

The analysis identifies five key areas of action for the next decade. First, accelerating low-carbon electrification by scaling up renewable energy generation alongside flexibility solutions, strengthening transmission and distribution networks, and reforming electricity markets to encourage coordinated investment across the power system. Second, driving the electrification of road transport through targeted EV incentives, expansion of charging and grid infrastructure and support for domestic manufacturing and resilient EV supply chains. 

Third, improving industrial competitiveness by rapidly deploying low-carbon fuels and technologies such as biofuels, renewable hydrogen and industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS), enabling India to capitalise on opportunities in a shifting global industrial landscape. Fourth, maintaining transition fuels where necessary to ensure an orderly shift, including the strategic use of natural gas to balance intermittent renewables and replace traditional biomass in residential cooking. Finally, making carbon removals investible by enabling geological and natural sinks through carbon markets and international mechanisms, supporting progress toward net-zero emissions by 2070 while attracting finance and strengthening competitiveness.