India’s Vehicle Count to Hit 500 Million by 2050, EVs Take the Lead

India’s vehicle ownership is projected to more than double by 2050, rising from 226 million in 2023 to nearly 500 million, with two-wheelers accounting for nearly 70 percent of that growth.

This finding comes from a new series of studies released by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), offering a district-level deep dive into vehicle stock, ownership costs, and fuel demand patterns.

According to the business-as-usual projection based on GDP and population trends, private car ownership is expected to triple to around 90 million by mid-century.

The studies reveal that the bulk of this vehicular growth will be concentrated in the northern and western states. Uttar Pradesh alone is expected to house over 90 million vehicles by 2050, followed closely by Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat. Meanwhile, urban centres like Delhi, Bengaluru, Thane, Pune, and Ahmedabad are projected to account for 10% of the national vehicle stock.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are already proving cost-competitive across several key segments. The studies show that electric two-wheelers have the lowest total cost of ownership (TCO), costing INR 1.48 per km compared to INR 2.46 per km for petrol models. Similarly, electric three-wheelers cost INR 1.28 per km, less than half the INR 3.21 per km for their petrol counterparts. For commercial taxis, where operating costs are critical, EVs offer significant savings. Private EV cars are also competitive in states offering robust subsidies and cheaper charging.

However, medium and heavy goods vehicles remain a challenge for electrification. In 2024, EVs for trucks and buses continue to lag behind diesel, CNG, and LNG on cost. The studies project LNG to remain the most economical option for freight transport until 2040, unless large-scale investments in battery R&D, green hydrogen, and charging/refuelling infrastructure are made.

Without aggressive electrification and clean fuel adoption, diesel will continue to dominate India’s road transport sector well into the 2040s. Under a business-as-usual scenario, diesel demand may not peak until 2047, while petrol could peak around 2032. This trajectory poses a serious roadblock to meeting India’s emissions targets.

CEEW Fellow Hemant Mallya highlighted the urgency of district-level transport planning. He said, “A clear-eyed understanding of how vehicles grow, what fuels them, and what it costs to own them is essential. "Without a timely transition, the cost, economic and environmental, could be staggering,” he added.

The reports recommend several policy interventions, including improving access to EV financing, expanding district-level data via the VAHAN portal, and trialling various fuel technologies across vehicle types. With fuel tax revenues set to decline by the 2040s, the studies also suggest alternatives like distance-based taxation. Further, improving parking access and slow-charging facilities in residential areas could accelerate EV adoption.

Dr Himani Jain, Senior Programme Lead at CEEW, underscored the bigger picture, saying,  “India’s transport sector is grappling with energy insecurity, congestion, and emissions. Our modelling shows we must rethink urban mobility, prioritising walkability, efficient public transport, and clean fuel adoption.”

The findings are based on CEEW’s newly developed Transportation Fuel Forecasting Model (TFFM), which enables district-level projections of vehicle growth and fuel demand. The tool aims to guide OEMs, fuel providers, policymakers, and financiers in making data-driven, climate-resilient decisions.