India's Solar Manufacturing Industry Shifts From Scale to Global Competitiveness
EUPD Research projects that India is expected to install about 213 GWdc of new solar capacity between 2025 and 2029 with annual additions averaging 42 GWdc. At the same time, module manufacturing capacity could exceed 280 GW by 2030, while cell capacity is projected to rise from 26 GW in 2025 to roughly 171 GW by the end of the decade.
November 18, 2025. By News Bureau
EUPD Research projects that India is expected to install about 213 GWdc of new solar capacity between 2025 and 2029 with annual additions averaging 42 GWdc. At the same time, module manufacturing capacity could exceed 280 GW by 2030, while cell capacity is projected to rise from 26 GW in 2025 to roughly 171 GW by the end of the decade. This positions India among the largest integrated PV manufacturing bases worldwide.
The scale of this expansion is creating substantial export opportunities. At a Capacity Utilisation Factor (CUF) of 65 percent, which represents the breakeven point for most manufacturers, India’s module export potential could reach about 143 GW by 2030. With the United States historically absorbing the majority of shipments but now constrained by tighter trade measures, manufacturers will need to deepen engagement with Europe, the Middle East and Africa to sustain production levels and diversify market exposure.
“India’s solar manufacturing surge has delivered scale, and the focus should now be on global competitiveness. Identifying the most resilient markets and their stakeholders, and meeting emerging sustainability and quality requirements will be essential for long-term success,” said Markus AW Hoehner, Founder and CEO, EUPD Group.
India’s cost position has improved over the past year, with the spot price gap between Indian and Chinese TOPCon modules narrowing from 9 to 5.7 US¢/W between early 2024 and October 2025. This shift reflects advances in automation, scale, integration and production efficiency. However, minimum sustainable prices in India remain 14 to 17 percent higher than in China and Southeast Asia, underscoring the need for continued technological and operational progress.
Several structural advantages are strengthening India’s prospects in markets where sustainability considerations play an increasingly important role, including Europe. Freight costs from India to Europe represent about five percent of module prices compared with 8.7 percent for shipments from China, and shipping emissions on this route are about 65 percent lower. These factors support compliance with evolving European industrial and carbon-related requirements.
The proposed EU-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) could add further momentum through potential mutual recognition of testing and certification as well as opportunities for joint investment and technology cooperation.
“India’s expanding manufacturing base is increasingly aligned with regions seeking diversified and transparent supply chains, and maintaining competitiveness will be essential as global oversupply and pricing pressures persist,” said Rajan Kalsotra, Senior Consultant, EUPD Research.
Long-term competitiveness in India’s solar manufacturing sector will be shaped by advances in high-efficiency technologies, stronger ESG and innovation performance, and early alignment with emerging European regulatory and emissions requirements. Manufacturers that precisely target markets, differentiate products and rely on robust data will be best positioned to sustain margins and turn current momentum into long-term global strength, according to EUPD Research.
As competition intensifies, speed, focus and disciplined execution outweigh scale alone. Indian manufacturers must move beyond production volume toward data-driven market understanding, tiering markets, segmenting customers and aligning technology with profitable demand. For over 25 years, EUPD Research has enabled this shift through evidence-based insights, stakeholder access and clear strategic direction. Sustainable leadership will belong to those who pair technological capability with data-driven intelligence and precise market execution.
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