India's Renewable Journey: IEA Outlook Reveals Ambitions, Progress, and Obstacles Ahead

The International Energy Agency recently released a report titled 'COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge Tracking,' which examines countries’ ambitions and identifies policies to bridge the gap. It investigates whether recent trends in renewable deployment align with global ambitions and the aim of achieving 11,000 gigawatts (GW) of capacity by 2030.

Additionally, it provides regional perspectives, pinpoints critical challenges for advanced and emerging economies, and proposes priority areas for policymakers to address the implementation gap, especially during updates to their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

The report highlights that India is one of the few countries faring well with its aggressive renewable policies and implementation. The South Asian nation is one of the 30 countries aiming to increase their renewable capacity by two to three times by 2030. This group of countries, led by China, the US, India, Germany, and Spain, accounts for almost three-quarters of global ambition. China has emerged as the most significant contributor to this change. Among emerging and developing economies, India is only second to China in its stride in renewables.

Furthermore, nearly 50 countries are on track to reach or surpass their current plans, with China being the biggest contributor. The report suggests that the world would need to accelerate average annual growth by 36 percent over the rest of the decade to reach national ambitions. Notably, India is one of the major countries encouraged to accelerate its pace in the sector. Other regions falling into the same category include the European Union and the United States.

While the world has set 2050 as a target year, 2030 emerges as a crucial milestone for assessing renewable progress. Current ambitions of countries collectively amount to approximately 7,903 GW of renewable energy (RE) target by 2030. However, there appears to be a shortfall of 4,250 GW of additional capacity needed to realize the global tripling pledge. Spearheaded by India and Japan, the 2030 ambitions of the Asia-Pacific region contribute 15 percent to the global total. India aims to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity (including renewable and nuclear) by 2030, with renewables accounting for about 485 GW, marking a 2.6-fold increase from the 2022 level. 

Among renewable energy sources, Solar PV is set to fulfill over 60 percent of stated renewable growth ambitions in the Asia-Pacific region, remaining the preferred choice in almost all countries due to its cost-competitiveness, relative ease of project development, and the option of deploying rooftop installations to avoid land-use challenges. However, plans for other renewable technologies in the Asia-Pacific region are limited. For instance, only India and Vietnam are considering significant hydropower and bioenergy capacity deployment. Countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, New Zealand, and Japan are counting on Geothermal power due to their geographies.

The report further illuminates the challenges confronting India in meeting its targets. Expanding an already substantial market presents significant hurdles, including dwindling land availability and growing complexities in system integration. In response, India is implementing policies to promote the establishment of hybrid renewable power plants, outlining extensive plans for large auction volumes, and facilitating the repowering of existing wind farms in optimal locations.

The COP28 climate summit in Dubai was a landmark event in the saga of climate change initiatives and has remained in focus for the past few decades. Almost all countries made major pledges about their intended efforts with the aim of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. What makes this event more defining is that the governments set clear goals for the first time to meet the Paris Agreement target, such as tripling global renewable energy capacity by the end of this decade.