India to Lead Global Oil Demand Growth by 2030, IEA Report Reveals
The report emphasizes India's expanding role in global oil markets, attributing this growth to the nation's robust economic development, burgeoning population, and evolving demographics.
February 08, 2024. By Abha Rustagi
The report emphasizes India's expanding role in global oil markets, attributing this growth to the nation's robust economic development, burgeoning population, and evolving demographics.
According to the report, factors such as urbanization, industrialization, the rise of a prosperous middle-class seeking mobility and tourism, along with efforts to enhance access to clean cooking, will drive the surge in oil demand. India is projected to contribute nearly 1.2 mb/d (million barrels per day) to global oil demand growth, accounting for over one-third of the anticipated 3.2 mb/d global increase, reaching 6.6 mb/d by 2030.
Diesel/gasoil is identified as the primary driver of India's oil demand growth, responsible for almost half of the nation's demand rise and more than one-sixth of total global oil demand growth by 2030. Additionally, jet-kerosene demand is expected to grow substantially, albeit from a comparatively lower base, while gasoline demand will see moderate growth due to the electrification of India's vehicle fleet. LPG demand will also increase, driven by investments in petrochemical industry facilities.
The report highlights the Indian government's initiatives to promote clean cooking programs in rural areas, leading to a significant surge in LPG imports. Investments in the refining sector by Indian oil companies are underway to meet the escalating domestic oil demand. Over the next seven years, the report forecasts the addition of 1 mb/d of new refinery distillation capacity in India, surpassing any other country globally outside of China.
Furthermore, the report anticipates that new electric vehicles (EVs) and energy efficiency enhancements will help avoid 480 kb/d of additional oil demand between 2023 and 2030. Biofuels are also expected to play a crucial role in India's transport sector decarbonization efforts, with the country already boasting one of the world's highest ethanol blending rates.
India aims to double nationwide ethanol blending in gasoline to 20 percent by Q4 2026, five years ahead of schedule, signaling its commitment to sustainable energy practices.
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