India Emerges as Price-Sensitive Swing Buyer in Global LNG: S&P Global
India is emerging as a price-sensitive swing buyer in the global LNG market while accelerating biofuels adoption to anchor the next phase of its energy transition, with speakers at Day 2 of India Energy Week 2026 highlighting how disciplined price discovery and pragmatic transition pathways are shaping the country’s evolving energy strategy.
January 28, 2026. By News Bureau
Together, these dynamics reflect India’s balancing act under the IEW 2026 theme of “Energising Growth, Securing Economies, Enriching Lives,” leveraging transparent gas benchmarks and rapidly scaling ethanol and sustainable aviation fuel to secure affordability, flexibility and long-term emissions reduction in a volatile global energy landscape.
According to Kenneth Foo, Global Director –LNRG Price Reporting, S&P Global Energy, “As global LNG supply growth accelerates, India is increasingly a benchmark-driven swing buyer, stepping into the spot or short-term markets during dislocations between WIM vs Henry Hub vs Brent linked-pricing. India imported just under 26 mtpa of LNG in 2025. An additional 3.5–4 mtpa of long-term contracted volumes is set to start delivering from 2026. Higher term supply leaves limited scope for spot LNG in 2026, especially if prices remain uncompetitive versus propane, naphtha and fuel oil.
“Early-2026 pricing briefly made LNG competitive with propane, triggering incremental demand, but this window has narrowed, highlighting India’s high price sensitivity. Furthermore, a low-price JKM and WIM (West India Marker) environment, the weakest since 2021, is accelerating adoption of floating-price LNG structures. WIM is listed on India Gas Exchange (IGX), has underpinned two physical transactions, and is emerging as the primary reference price for RLNG and LNG transactions, with deeper contractual use likely. Uncontracted LNG has a good likelihood of having a WIM reference.”
He further added, “With both LNG and crude price outlooks weak-- incremental LNG demand from refineries, CGD and industrial users will depend on LNG being competitive beyond non-LNG priced volumes, increasing reliance on transparent LNG benchmarks like JKM/WIM. Gas-based power demand this summer is a key swing factor. A stronger summer could lift spot demand. WIM has been used in NVVN gas-based power tenders in both 2024 and 2025, reinforcing its role in the Indian power market. A key geopolitical uncertainty remains Russian LNG post-2027, as Yamal volumes may be displaced from Europe due to the upcoming LNG/gas ban; Indian absorption of Russian supply will depend on pricing discounts, benchmark linkages and tolerance for geopolitical risk.”
Sophie Byron, Global Director – Biofuels Price Reporting, S&P Global Energy, said, “Decarbonisation goals are accelerating interest in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). India has articulated SAF blending targets of one percent by 2027 (around 45,000 mt), two percent in 2026, rising toward five percent by 2030, prompting industry efforts to scale production through multiple pathways, including waste-based and ethanol-to-jet routes, using both crop and non-crop ethanol sources. Current availability focuses on co-processed SAF through current refineries, using HEFA pathway and primarily used cooking oil feedstocks. More broadly, SAF policy frameworks are taking shape across Asia with blend targets mostly volumetric. However, cost competitiveness, feedstock availability and regulatory clarity will determine the pace of scale-up.”
“In addition, she said, “Asia’s biofuels market is entering a decisive growth phase, driven by stronger gasoline blending mandates and renewed policy focus on domestic ethanol production. India has emerged as a regional anchor market, rapidly scaling ethanol capacity, diversifying feedstocks beyond sugar-based routes with a rabid increase in corn or maize based ethanol, and moving close to nationwide E20 gasoline blending, implying annual ethanol demand of over 10 billion L6iters and rising.
"Across Southeast Asia, Vietnam is preparing for a nationwide E10 rollout, while the Philippines and Indonesia are advancing plans to increase blending beyond current levels, positioning Asia as a structurally growing ethanol demand region, albeit with continued supply and feedstock constraints. Post-2035, Asia ethanol blending rates stabilise as gasoline demand peaks for the region.”
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