India and other developing economies are projected to go electric much slower, leading to a globally fragmented auto market. In markets like India and South East Asia, two-wheeler and three-wheeler vehicles are more attractive targets for electrification in the short term
November 21, 2019. By News Bureau
Around 57 per cent of all global passenger vehicle sales, and over 30 per cent of the passenger vehicle fleet, will be electric by 2040, as per Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
The BNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 anticipates annual passenger EV sales to rise to 10 million in 2025, 28 million in 2030 and 56 million by 2040.
It noted that battery prices continue to keep falling. As a result, it is expected that there will be a price parity between electric vehicles (EVs) and internal combustion vehicles (ICE) by the mid-2020s in most segments, although there is wide variation between geographies and vehicle segments.
Emissions regulations are getting tighter everywhere, both at the city and the national level and automakers are responding with a surge of new EV models launching in the next 5 years. Over 2 million electric vehicles were sold in 2018, up from just a few thousand in 2010, and there is no sign of slowing down.
"Shared mobility services will adopt EVs faster than private owners, due to more attractive economics. Today, EVs account for 1.8% of the shared mobility fleet but by 2040, we expect EVs to account for 80% of the shared mobility fleet," said the Bloomberg NEF outlook.
Annual lithium-ion battery demand for EVs is also projected to grow rapidly in the forecast, passing 1,748 gigawatt hour (GWh) annually by 2030. "Battery cell manufacturing capacity will pass 1 trillion-watt hour (TWh) by 2025, based on current announced capacity plans," said the report.
According to the analysis, China will account for 48 per cent of the passenger EV sales market in 2025, 34 per cent in 2030 and 26 per cent in 2040. Japan, South Korea and Australia will see significant adoption of EVs by 2040 with EVs representing 63 per cent, 52 per cent, and 61 per cent of passenger vehicle sales respectively.
India and other developing economies are projected to go electric much slower, leading to a globally fragmented auto market. In markets like India and South East Asia, two-wheeler and three-wheeler vehicles are more attractive targets for electrification in the short term.
In India, the government launched a scheme for Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME) in 2015, which increased the share of hybrid and EV from almost zero per cent in FY 2012-13 to 0.9% in the FY 2017-18.
The phase II of the scheme is being implemented for a period of 3 years from April 1, 2019 with an overall outlay of Rs 10,000 crore. The vehicles eligible for demand incentives under FAME II scheme are buses, four wheelers, three-wheelers and two-wheelers.
The department of heavy industry, which is the nodal agency responsible for the planning, implementation and review of the scheme has approved the sanction of 5595 electric buses to 64 cities or state government entities.
"The buses will run about 4 billion kilometer (km) during their contract period and are expected to save around 1.2 billion liters of fuel over the contract period, which will also result into avoidance of 2.6 million tonnes of CO2 production," according to the ministry draft plan.
The Ministry of Power, Government of India launched National E-Mobility Program in 2018 with an aim to provide a boost to the entire e-mobility ecosystem including vehicle manufacturers, charging infrastructure companies, fleet operators and service providers.
The program is being implemented by Energy Efficiency Services Limited (EESL) which is aimed to aggregate 20,000 electric cars in India. If implemented, the country is expected to save over 5 crore litres of fuel every year leading to a reduction of over 5.6 lakh tonnes of annual CO2 emissions.
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