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Drop in Polysilicon Imports to China Marks Lowest Levels Since 2011: Report

The decline is attributed to non-Chinese polysilicon manufacturers, including Wacker, Hemlock Semiconductor, and OCI Malaysia, increasingly redirecting their shipments from China to Vietnam.

March 02, 2024. By Abha Rustagi

Germany-based Bernreuter Research has revealed a significant decline in polysilicon imports into China, reaching the lowest levels seen since 2011.

According to Chinese customs data, imports of this crucial material for solar cells and semiconductors plummeted by 28.5 percent, from 88,093 MT in 2022 to 62,965 MT in 2023, a volume even slightly less than that recorded in 2011.

The decline is attributed to non-Chinese polysilicon manufacturers, including Wacker, Hemlock Semiconductor, and OCI Malaysia, increasingly redirecting their shipments from China to Vietnam. This shift comes as three of the four largest Chinese solar module suppliers have established wafer plants in Vietnam.

According to the report, two main factors have influenced this trend. Firstly, on August 18, 2023, the US Department of Commerce confirmed its preliminary determination that several manufacturers in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam were circumventing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese solar cells and modules. Secondly, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which came into effect on June 21, 2022, prohibits products made with forced labor in Xinjiang from entering the United States. Consequently, leading Chinese solar module suppliers have begun to establish separate supply chains based on polysilicon from non-Chinese manufacturers for the export of solar modules to the US.

Hemlock Semiconductor (USA), Wacker (Germany/USA), and OCI Malaysia have significantly increased their polysilicon exports to Vietnam, compensating for the loss in business volume in China. However, Wacker's two German polysilicon plants have experienced a negative balance due to a drop in imports into China.

The combined share of Germany's Wacker and OCI Malaysia in total Chinese polysilicon imports rose to 97.8 percent in the fourth quarter, with a notable decrease in overall volumes since October. If the fourth quarter is any indicator for 2024, polysilicon imports into China are projected to decrease by another 40 percent.

Bernreuter Research's report provides comprehensive insights into the polysilicon market, including detailed forecasts of polysilicon prices through 2027 and analyses of supply and demand trends.

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Polysilicon manufacturers

Hemlock Semiconductor