China’s Solar Energy Capacity Set to Double by 2030, Driven by PV Tech and Policy Push

China is set to nearly double its solar energy capacity, reaching 2,500 GW by 2030—up from 1,230 GW in 2025—according to a new report by Mordor Intelligence. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.24 percent over the forecast period.

Solar power has emerged as China’s fastest-growing renewable energy source, driven by strong government support and rising investments in clean energy projects. The momentum is further fueled by accelerated deployment under the 14th Five-Year Plan, record-low module prices, and an expanding corporate power purchase agreement (PPA) ecosystem, the report stated.

By technology, solar photovoltaics (PV) continued to dominate China's solar landscape, accounting for 99.5 percent of the market in 2024. The PV segment is projected to expand at a 15.3 percent CAGR through 2030.

This dominance is fueled by the rapid adoption of high-efficiency N-type TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT), and back-contact cells, which together reached a 70 percent shipment share. These advanced PV technologies have achieved record conversion efficiencies of up to 25.4 percent, offering higher power density and reduced balance-of-system costs.

While concentrated solar power (CSP) remains a niche segment, it is gaining policy tailwinds as a stabilizing resource amid rising inverter-related grid regulations. CSP capacity surpassed 1 GW after Xinjiang’s demonstration plant joined the grid in December 2024, pairing 8-hour storage with Linear Fresnel heliostats to enhance peak-shaving capability.

By connection type, on-grid projects captured 91 percent of China's solar energy market share in 2024, benefiting from desert-based megaprojects and ultra-high voltage (UHV) corridors. Between 2025 and 2030, on-grid solar is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.8 percent, driven by a mix of national policy incentives, grid modernisation initiatives, and surging electricity demand across industrial and urban sectors.

By end-user, utility and grid companies accounted for 70 percent of the market in 2024, driven largely by state-owned enterprises aligning with China’s decarbonization goals. However, commercial and industrial solar demand is on the rise, projected to grow at a 16.5 percent CAGR to 2030.

China’s solar manufacturing sector remains moderately concentrated, with major players LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, JA Solar, JinkoSolar, and Tongwei Solar leading the pack.

Together, LONGi, Trina, and JinkoSolar shipped 150 GW of modules in 2024, more than half of global deliveries. However, they face shrinking gross margins amid oversupply, the report noted.

While challenges such as grid congestion in the northwest provinces, the incoming market-based tariff regime, and intensifying global trade barriers pose structural headwinds, continued innovation and coordinated policy efforts are expected to solidify China's position as the world’s leading solar power market through 2030.

The report also noted that higher US tariffs and other barriers are prompting Chinese solar manufacturers to accelerate overseas manufacturing investments in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Between January and May 2025, China added 198 GW of solar and 46 GW of wind capacity—enough to generate as much electricity as Indonesia or Turkey—according to an analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

In May alone, Chinese companies installed 93 GW of solar and 27 GW of wind, equivalent to nearly 100 solar panels being deployed every second and one wind turbine every 10 minutes, Myllyvirta wrote on social media.

China’s installed solar photovoltaic capacity is estimated to account for nearly half of the total solar capacity installed worldwide.

India continues to advance steadily toward its target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2070. In a major milestone, the country reached 50 percent of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources in July 2025—five years ahead of its target under the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement.

By the end of June 2025, India’s total renewable energy capacity had reached 234 GW, with solar alone accounting for 116.25 GW. 

According to a report by global energy think tank Ember, India became the world’s third-largest producer of electricity from wind and solar in 2024, overtaking Germany.

The country added a record 24 GW of solar capacity in 2024—more than double the installation in 2023—positioning India as the third-largest solar market globally, behind only China and the United States.