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China Cell, Wafer, Polysilicon Prices Fall: What It Means for India

Chinese solar cell prices have declined for a third consecutive week since peaking in late August, with lower wafer and polysilicon prices also easing upstream costs, a trend that could influence India’s module pricing and its ongoing shift towards domestic ingot-wafer-cell manufacturing.

September 25, 2026. By Mrinmoy Dey

Chinese solar cell prices have continued to weaken this week, marking a third consecutive decline, as overseas restocking – especially in the US before the 15 percent ad valorem tariff and minimum import prices (MIPs) on solar cells and other polysilicon derivatives kick in from December 4 – slowed and lower wafer and silver prices reduced input costs for manufacturers. This could have a major impact on India's solar manufacturing sector.

According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on September 15, Free-On-Board (FOB) China prices for TOPCon M10 cells fell 2.29 percent week on week to USD 0.0469/W. TOPCon 210R cell prices declined 1.72 percent to USD 0.0458/W. Both prices are around 12 percent below their late-August peaks, but remain about 20 percent above August 4 levels for M10 and 18 percent higher for 210R.

The cooling down of solar cell prices can lower the overall module prices in India, which remain heavily dependent on Chinese solar cell imports despite the government’s push for localisation. For context, India’s solar module manufacturing capacity listed in ALMM-I has crossed 228 GW in September 2026, whereas the corresponding cell manufacturing capacity lags at around 35.4 GW as per ALMM List-II as of August 2026.

Even if we account for 35-40 percent factory utilisation, the solar cell demand comes out to 80-90 GW. So, there is around 50-60 GW import demand. China accounts for 95 percent of India’s solar cell imports, as per industry estimates and in FY26, cell imports rose 37 percent to about USD 1.86 billion.

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has extended the ALMM-II exemption on net metering and open access projects till December 2026. Moreover, consumers opting out of subsidy or for additional capacity are not mandated to use DCR solar modules. Moreover, beyond about 50 GW of domestic requirement, DCR is not mandatory. And, if the announcements from the majority of solar manufacturers is anything to go by, India will have sufficient cell capacity for domestic consumption.

Interestingly, for India, the wafer prices are also coming down. Persistent oversupply has kept wafer prices subdued. M10 wafer prices are sitting at USD 0.149/pc, and 210R wafers have dropped to USD 0.153/pc.

The root of the upstream price crash stems from massive polysilicon inventories (exceeding 570,000 metric tons in early 2026). Global spot prices for polysilicon recently hovered around USD 5.07/kg. In response, market reports indicate that 10 major Chinese polysilicon manufacturers have agreed to slash production to just 35 percent of their nominal capacity to halt the price freefall.

The lowered raw material prices can help reduce the price gap between DCR and Non-DCR modules going forward. It is also expected to benefit India’s localisation drive as the country aims to bring solar Ingots and Wafers under the ambit of ALMM by June 2028.

Tags:

Solar PV

China Polysilicon Price

China Wafer Price

China ingot price reduction

China cell price reduction