CEA Unveils Long Term National Resource Adequacy Plan, Sees 458.7 GW Peak Demand by 2035–36

The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has released the Long-Term National Resource Adequacy Plan (LT-NRAP) for 2026–27 to 2035–36, outlining a detailed framework to ensure reliable electricity supply in the country over the next decade.

Prepared in accordance with the Resource Adequacy Guidelines dated June 28, 2023, the plan is based on inputs from distribution licensees, generating companies, load dispatch centres and other stakeholders. It assesses electricity resource adequacy over a ten-year planning horizon at the national level, with the objective of supporting coordinated planning, policy formulation and investment decisions in the power sector. The CEA has clarified that the accuracy of the outcomes depends on the quality, completeness and timeliness of data provided by stakeholders, while the responsibility for implementation and ensuring adequacy at state and distribution levels rests with the respective entities.

As per the plan, India’s peak electricity demand is projected at 458.7 GW by 2035–36, while the electrical energy requirement is estimated at 3,365 billion units (BU). The adequacy assessment defines resource adequacy as the ability of the power system to meet demand at all times, including under conditions of scheduled and forced outages.

The study adopts a probabilistic planning approach, incorporating demand forecasts, generation availability, outage rates, renewable energy variability and transmission constraints. Reliability of the system is evaluated using indices such as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Expected Energy Not Served (EENS).

The plan determines an optimal generation capacity mix required to meet projected demand at least cost while maintaining reliability standards. It highlights the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources such as solar and wind, and underscores the need for flexible and dispatchable generation resources to maintain grid stability.

The existing installed generation capacity in the country stood at 520.50 GW as on January 31, 2026. The capacity mix included 227.8 GW of coal (including lignite), 20.12 GW of gas, and 0.59 GW of diesel, along with 8.78 GW of nuclear capacity. Renewable energy sources accounted for a substantial share, with 140.60 GW of solar, 54.65 GW of wind, and 16.8 GW of other renewable energy, while large hydro capacity stood at 51.16 GW. In addition, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) of 275.85 MW / 791.8 MWh were installed.

Looking ahead, the plan projects a total installed capacity of 1,121 GW by 2035–36, indicating a significant expansion of the power system. A major share of this capacity is expected to come from non-fossil fuel sources, reflecting the ongoing transition in the generation mix.

Energy storage has been identified as a critical component of the future power system. The plan estimates a requirement of 174 GW / 888 GWh of storage capacity by 2035–36, including Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Pumped Storage Projects (PSPs), to support renewable integration, manage variability and meet peak demand requirements.

The document also introduces the concept of Planning Reserve Margin (PRM), representing the additional capacity required over peak demand to ensure system reliability. It further provides methodologies for assessing the capacity contribution of different generation technologies, including conventional, renewable and storage resources.

The CEA has stated that the national resource adequacy plan will serve as a guiding framework for states and distribution licensees, which are required to prepare their own adequacy plans in alignment with the national methodology and projections.

Overall, the plan presents a comprehensive roadmap for ensuring a reliable, secure and cost-effective electricity supply system, combining large-scale renewable energy deployment, significant storage integration and conventional generation support through 2035–36.