Bangladesh’s Rooftop Solar Goal Faces Deadline Pressure and Capacity Challenges

Bangladesh’s plan to install 3,000 MW of rooftop solar capacity by December 2025 has sent a strong signal of intent to scale up renewable energy.

However, a new briefing note from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) warns that the target may be overly ambitious, given the country’s limited success with rooftop solar to date.

Between June 2008 and June 2025, Bangladesh managed to add only 245 MW of rooftop solar capacity. To reach the new 3,000MW goal in less than six months, installations would need to be ramped up by more than twelve times the current pace,  a scale-up that appears daunting.

IEEFA’s lead energy analyst for Bangladesh, Shafiqul Alam, notes that the combined sanctioned load of government offices, hospitals, educational and religious institutions is less than 1,500 MW, far short of the 3,000 MW required under net metering guidelines. “The Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority should first assess and document rooftop potential in these buildings before pushing ahead,” Alam said. He also flagged that delays in funding, tendering, bid evaluations, and project execution will likely necessitate an extension of the December 2025 deadline.

The briefing further highlights capacity constraints in the private sector, with only 15 to 20 high-quality engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firms active in the country. These firms, the note argues, lack the manpower and bandwidth to deliver 3,000MW of rooftop installations in a matter of months.

Bangladesh’s new rooftop programme proposes different models for different institutions: a CAPEX model for government offices, financed by public funds, and an OPEX model for hospitals and educational institutions that requires no upfront investment. Alam said each approach has trade-offs. The CAPEX model enables rapid rollout and higher savings but carries risks of poor coordination, rushed developer selection, and weak maintenance. The OPEX model ensures better quality but offers lower savings and could face financing barriers, alongside the risk of rural load-shedding that undermines project viability.

Technical risks also loom large. Soilin,  the accumulation of dust and dirt on panels, could significantly reduce annual solar yield. IEEFA has recommended that public offices create a fund from CAPEX model savings to cover long-term maintenance contracts, while utilities must address rural load-shedding to protect OPEX-based projects.

The report also draws lessons from regional peers. Pakistan has expanded rooftop solar rapidly under the twin pressures of supply shortages and high tariffs. Sri Lanka, with support from multilateral agencies, addressed financing barriers before channeling public funds into rooftop solar for government buildings. India, meanwhile, has become a regional leader with over 18 GW of rooftop solar installed by May 2025, thanks to consistent policy and regulatory support.

“Bangladesh’s rooftop solar sector is still at a nascent stage. Building the capacity of stakeholders and agencies, and establishing an independent monitoring mechanism, will be crucial for long-term success,” Alam stressed.