Energetica india Magazine

I ndia’s solar PV manufacturing is at an inflexion point. At the top end, India’s module manufacturing capacity has sur - passed current domestic requirements by about three times. India’s solar module ca - pacity under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) has reached about 162 GW, as against a domestic re - quirement of about 50-55 GW. energetica INDIA- February_2026 51 At the solar cell level, India is fast ramping up capacity, with the target of achieving indigenous solar cell manufacturing by 2028. ALMM-II enlisted ca - pacity for solar cells has reached 26.79 GW, slightly below present demand – but this too is projected to exceed 100 GW by FY28, surpassing domestic needs as new projects come online, as per projections by CareEdge Ratings. In sharp contrast, upstream segments such as polysilicon, ingots and wafers remain severely underdeveloped, with only about 2 GW of ingot and wafer capacity and no commercial polysilicon production in the country. This represents a significant demand-supply gap within the solar PV supply chain, highlighting a structural imbalance. At the same time, mandatory DCR usage from June 2026 for government and subsidy-linked projects will exclude a large share of non-DCR modules from key demand segments, put - ting further strain on modules. However, for a resilient solar PV supply chain, demand side push is required on the upstream components – creating a ‘Catch-22’ situation. For the overall health of the industry, the issue must be addressed right now to stop a bubble from forming. Module Enters Overcapacity Territory India’s solar module manufacturing capacity has grown from 2.3 GW in 2014 to about 162 GW in February 2026. According to a projection by credit rating agency CareEdge Ratings, India’s solar module manufacturing capacity is ex - pected to reach about 215-220 GWp by FY28, reflecting strong policy support and rising demand. Source: CareEdge Ratings The All India Solar Industries Association (AISIA), in a letter to the MNRE in August 2025, warned that module manufacturing capacity has grown to nearly four times annual demand, and that unchecked lending could create unsustainable debt burdens and potential non-performing assets (NPAs) in the banking system. The association urged that banks increase due diligence be - fore funding additional module or cell projects. Consolidation on the Cards? Experts within the industry aver that cell-module supply mismatch, combined with high leverage and thin margins among many OEMs, could trigger price crashes, cash-flow stress, and rising NPAs, turning an industrial expansion sto - ry into a financial risk. FEATURE STORY