Energetica India Magazine - November 2025

energetica INDIA- November_2025 39 FEATURE STORY manufacturing across all stages — from polysilicon to modules — and an even tighter 95–96 percent share in wafers and polysilicon. Most solar manufacturing equipment suppliers are Chinese as well. These realities leave non-Chinese solar manufacturers exposed to upstream supply risks and sudden tech shifts that China can trig- ger with ease —moves that could quickly render existing factories outdated and force costly upgrades. The real question is: Is India prepared for this challenge? India’s Rise in Solar PV Manufacturing India’s solar module manufacturing capacity has grown from 2.3 GW in 2014 to over 100 GW in August 2025. India’s module man- ufacturing capacity enlisted in the Approved List of Models and Manufacturing (ALMM) has reached 121.7 GW in November 2025 – marking a spectacular 53-fold growth in just over a decade! And, for solar cells, the enlisted capacity has reached about 18.5 GWwith eight manufacturers making it to the list. According to a projection by credit rating agency Ca- reEdge Ratings, India’s solar module manufacturing capacity is expected to reach about 215-220 GWp by FY28, reflecting strong policy support and rising de - mand. “Domestic solar cell capacity remains limited, having expanded more modestly from 8 GWp to around 27 GWp in the same period and is expected to reach 100 GWp by FY28. This accelerated capacity expansion has been driven by increased solar installations, proac- tive policy support, and improved access to financing avenues,” it said. India’s Dependence on China for Upstream Components In the renewable energy spectrum, global supply chains are still deeply tied to China, and geopolitical shifts over the next five years will heavily influence their stability. Currently, China dominates the production of essential raw materials, including rare earths, lithium, and other critical minerals that underpin the global shift to clean energy. Nearly 70 percent of the supply chain for solar, wind, and battery technologies sits under Chinese control. Further, China also leads in FABs, silicon, and wafer materials that form the backbone of the semiconductor industry, not just for EVs but for electronics manufac- turing as a whole. The Government of India’s emphasis on a self-reliant approach in the last couple of years have reduced im- port dependency to 65-70 percent, but it is still inad- equate to meet domestic demand. The players import components such as polysilicon, ingots, and wafers, in- curring high costs because India lacks a sufficient man - ufacturing base for them.