Renewable Potential: Can it Balance Operational Energy Needs of Buildings in India?

Introduction

There has been a growing awareness about the climate change phenomenon, manifested through global warming from greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The landmark 2018 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that global warming is likely to exceed 1.5⁰C between 2030 and 2052, if it continues to increase at the current rate and this may lead to catastrophic effects on our eco-system. More than 11,000 scientists have declared that the Climate Emergency has already arrived and that it is accelerating much faster than anticipated.The lockdowns during Covid-19 in different parts of the world placed temporary brakes on this acceleration. However, even during lockdowns, the occurrence of extreme events, which epitomise climate change, have not shown signs of abatement! The Amphan and Nisarga cyclons and the fury of floods in North-East, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, etc. are the clear examples.

The escalating dangers posed by the climate change phenomenon are getting highlighted in the successive Conference of Parties (COPs), being held every year under the aegis of the United Nations since 1995. It is however a matter of great regret that even after the long years of negotiations, there was no unanimity amongst leading governments on firm steps needed to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Notwithstanding this, many governmental and non-governmental bodies/organizations have declared Climate Emergency and local citizens’ movements, including those by school children are demanding climate-friendly actions.

Notable Climate-friendly Initiatives

With the residential and commercial buildings currently responsible for 39% of global carbon emissions, the World Green Building Council (World GBC) strongly advocates decarbonising this sector as it would be one of the most cost-effective ways to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Certain other voluntary bodies like “Architect 2030” and “Structural Engineers 2050”, formed by leading architects and engineers are actively supporting the World GBC’s initiatives.

Another notable climate-friendly initiative was recently launched by a group of more than 1,000 dedicated built-environment professionals from London who have evolved a practical approach to achieve ‘net zero carbon’ by 2050 in buildings. This voluntary group, known as London Energy Transformation Initiative (LETI), has published two painstakingly-prepared documents, highlighting the approach for achieving sweeping reduction in carbon emissions in the built environment. LETI has divided carbon emissions generated during the service life of the buildings into two components – ‘operational carbon’ and ‘embodied carbon’.

Both World GBC and LETI suggests that new buildings should be designed with net zero operational carbon i.e. the energy demand for operations such as heating, cooling, ventilation and lighting systems, as well as energy used by equipment such as fridges, washing machines, TVs, computers, lifts, and cooking to be entirely met with renewable energy –without burning fossil fuels!

Realising that it may not be possible to achieve net zero operational carbon in each and every building or building complex, it is suggested that the net zero operational balance of carbon can then be achieved at the national level, that is, energy consumption for all new buildings should at least be equal to the total renewable energy production at national level.

Reducing embodied carbon is little complicated as it involves reducing both the energy and material resources used during each of the three main stages of building’s existence – i.e. construction stage, operation stage and de-construction stage. The cradle-to-gate approach of estimating embodied carbon (i.e. up to the construction stage) is well known. The present author, who was involved in the ‘green’ certification of ready-mixed concrete (RMC) plants in India under the aegis of Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), has analysed the post-certification data from 17 RMC plants across the country and shown that the awareness created by the certification has helped in reducing the carbon footprints of concrete by 7.2%.

Nonetheless, estimating the embodied carbon in the operation and de-construction stages (i.e. gate to cradle) is somewhat complex. The concept of planning and designing a building for de-construction would itself be new to many architects and engineers! LETI’s publication on ‘Embodied Carbon Primer’ provides guidance on this aspect. The World GBC’s publication “Bringing Embodied Concrete Upfront” also provides valuable guidance on the same issue.

A glimpse of some of the major provisions in LETI’s approach of bringing sweeping reduction in both operational and embodied carbon is provided by the present author in another article.

Renewable Energy Scenario India

In the context of the initiatives of World GBC and LETI, it may be interesting to examine the prevailing state of affairs in India. While doing so, let us keep the issue of estimating the embodied carbon in buildings aside for the time being in view of the complexities involved in such estimation. Let us confine the attention initially to the operational carbon. The crucial question in this regard is-can the current operational energy requirements of the buildings in India be balanced with renewable energy?

Before examining this proposition, it would be essential to have a broad idea regarding the renewable energy scenario in India. Based on the general review of the official data from various government agencies, following picture emerges:

• India is indeed lucky to have a large renewable energy potential - in excess of1,000 GW! The break up is reportedly as below:

                    1. Solar: 750 GW (assuming 3% wasteland made available)

                    2. Wind:302 GW with a hub height 100 m

                    3. Offshore wind: 70 GW (mainly Gujarat and Tamil Nadu coast)

                    4. Bio energy: 25 GW

• The renewable energy potential can increase further to more than 1300 GW as it is estimated that wind power potential can reach up to 695 GW with the hub height of 120 m instead of 100 m.
• India’s INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution) goal is to install 175 GW of renewable power capacity by 2022. This includes 100 GW from solar energy, 60 GW from wind energy, 10 GW bio-energy, and 5 GW small hydro power plants.

India has achieved remarkable growth in increasing the renewable energy capacity during the past few years. The share of renewable power in the country’s total energy capacity has increased from 10% in 2014-15 to 23% by December 31^st, 2019 - a jump of 130%. Fig1 provides the latest share of source-wise energy capacities.

• As of December 2019, India could establish only 87GW of the renewable energy capacity. This means that herculean efforts are needed to achieve the 2022 target of 175GW renewable energy.
• The 100 GW target of solar energy consisted of 60 GW from grid-connected, ground-mounted large solar power plants and 40 GW from rooftop solar power
• As on December 31^st, 2019, while the ground-mounted installed solar power capacity was 33.73 GW, in the rooftop solar sector, a mere 2.42GW is reportedly installed till February 2020.
• The Standing Committee on Energy of the Parliament of India during its meeting on December 6^th, 2019 expressed concern on the shortfalls in the year-on-year achievements of the solar energy targets. For example, during the year2018- 19, only 8,519.52 MW capacity could be installed against the target of 15,355 MW i.e. a shortfall of 44.50 %.
• As regards rooftop solar (RTS), the parliamentary Committee pointed out that there should have been an installed RTS Capacity of 16,000MW by 2018- 19. But, as on October 15, 2019, only 1826MW of RTS capacity has reportedly been installed i.e. the achievement is only 11.50 % of the target.

Thus, while the overall shortfall in the installed capacity in the renewable sector is around 50% of 2022 target, the shortage in RTS is around 12%.systems.

Operational Energy Consumption in Buildings in India

Globally, buildings consume approximately half of the total energy produced and nearly 40 % of the total CO₂ emission is attributed to them. In India, reliable estimate of energy consumptions in buildings is not available. A passing reference to the same is however available in the ‘Introduction’ chapter of ‘Eco-Niwas Samhita 2018’, which states that “The building sector in India consumes over 30% of the total electricity consumed in the country …out of which 75% is used in residential buildings”. It is further states that the gross electricity consumption in residential buildings in India is increasing sharply – from 55 TWh in 1996-97 to 260 TWh in 2016-17.

Future projections of energy requirements and associated emissions from buildings are available in a working paper on ‘India’s Energy and Emission Outlook’ from the NITI Aayog. The paper postulates that the electricity consumption in residential buildings is going to rise anywhere from 630 and 940 TWh in 2032. Providing reference to the IEA 2018 report, the paper further points out that lion’s share of the projected growth in energy use for space cooling by 2050 can be expected to come from the emerging economies, with just three countries – India, China and Indonesia – contributing half of global cooling energy demand growth.

Gap in Operational Energy needs of buildings and Renewable Energy

Based on this brief review of the operational energy requirements in building sector, it seems that the estimated figure of 30% of the total energy being consumed by buildings appears to be quite conservative. According to 2011 census, there were 53 cities in India having population in excess of 1 million. Considering the rapid urbanization trend in India, the 2021 census is bound to add more numbers in the billion-plus category of cities. It is quite unlikely that these cities will defy the global trend of energy consumption and carbon emissions from buildings. Thus, in absence of any reliable data, it may not be an exaggeration to assume that current operational energy requirement of buildings in major cities in India may be anywhere in the range of 35 % of the total energy requirements of these cities.

As enshrined in World GBC and LETI’s proposals, it will be a good idea to fulfil the operational energy requirements of buildings entirely from renewable energy. Currently, while the share of renewable energy in India is 23% at national level, the operational energy requirement is roughly estimated to be of the order of30-35 %. Thus, at the national level, the gap in the energy balance between operational energy needs of buildings and renewable energy varies from 7to 12% of the total energy produced in the country. Looking at the current urbanization trends and the slogan of ‘housing for all’, this gap may appear to be conservative. Now, the main question is how do we narrow this gap?

Rooftop Solar: Need for a Great Leap Forward

One of the undisputable ways to bridge this gap is by installing more number of ground-mounted large solar power plants. However, one need not totally depend upon such plants alone. A large gap between the target and actual achievement is glaringly visible in the rooftop solar sector, where less than 12% of the target has been achieved. Here, the local community need to take proactive initiatives to supplement the efforts of the government.

Currently, the rooftop solar power has become more attractive than earlier. This is mainly because of two factors – one, the cost/unit of solar power has reduced sufficiently and second, the net metering facility is also made available to users. Some offices of public sector undertakings, hotels, resorts, malls, schools/ colleges have taken the initiative and installed rooftop solar systems. Incidentally, it is recently reported that the Indian Railways plan to be a net-zero carbon emitter by 2030through various initiatives, including electrification of broad gauge, improving energy efficiency and switching to renewable sources. It is reported that the Indian Railways are working to harness the potential of 500MW energy through roof top solar panels Incidentally, the Railways has 51,000 hectare of land potential for installing 20 GW land-based solar plants.

The contribution of residential housing societies seems negligible in rooftop solar installations. Millions of residential housing societies exist in India. It is reported that some 50,000 housing societies are registered within the Mumbai Metropolitan Region and 20,000 in the Pune region. It is true that all societies may not find it viable to install rooftop solar because of certain technical shortcomings. However, a majority of the existing and new residential societies and complexes would certainly find RTS beneficial in the long run. In the case of tall buildings, if sufficient space is not available, rooftop solar may become attractive even to take care of the power requirements of common utilities such as lighting pathways and common areas, pumping water, lifts, etc.

Lack of right-type of awareness on rooftop solar amongst the members of residential societies is one of the main hurdles in its widespread use. Secondly, revenue loss may be a concern of power distribution companies; hence some people believe that they may not extend whole-hearted support in net metering installation. Thirdly, since the process of subsidy disbursement has been given to power distribution companies from April 2019, adequate financial subsidies for installing rooftop solar system may not become available. However, many residential housing societies are financially sound and members are capable of making additional investments, if they are convinced of the long-term benefits.

Approaching housing societies and promoting RTS to them may not be attractive and cost effective for certain companies installing RTS system. Possibly, some NGOs can render useful service in this area. RTS operators can train the NGOs. A network of such NGOs can be created in a city and it will go a long way in popularising RST. Once a large number of existing and new housing societies start installing RTS system, the current shortfall can get reduced drastically.

After all, the responsibility of keeping the global temperature rise below 1.5⁰C is not only that of the government, but also of the citizens. Everyone needs to extend help in this endeavour in whatever little way it is possible for him/her. Infact such awareness will go a long way in arresting the climate change phenomenon.

Conclusion

In a journey to achieve net zero carbon emissions from buildings, the balancing of the operational energy needs of buildings with the renewable energy at national level would be the first important step. The discussion in the above paragraphs reveals that the shortfall between the operational energy needs of buildings and the renewable energy capacity at the national level ranges from around 7 to 12% of the total energy produced in the country. This is likely to increase further with rapid urbanization. While the shortfall can certainly be overcome by setting up additional land-based solar power plants, the author argues that the RTS system also needs to be given a big impetus.

- Vijay R Kulkarni, Partner, Midas Techfin Consultants LLP