In spite of a drop in its share, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, with its huge population base and strong prerequisite for electricity generation capacity, will persist to persuade the global solar PV module market over the forecast period 2018-2022, according to GlobalData.
The company’s latest report, ‘Solar PV Module, Update 2018’, discloses that market saturation, reduction in subsidies and declining costs of technologies are the chief factors impacting the global solar PV module market. It states that the global market volume is anticipated to decline at a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.8% from 87.5 GW in 2018 to 78.13 GW in 2022.
The huge markets of China, India, Japan and the US are expected to decline, due to changes in their energy markets. In 2017, APAC composed 73.6% of the market value due to the considerable movements in the Chinese market.
Nirushan Rajasekaram, Power Analyst at GlobalData, remarks: “The declining prices of PV modules and other auxiliary technologies such as inverters has translated into lower project costs; benefitting project developers and enabling proliferation within price sensitive markets. The declining price trend will be critical in driving the global market value down to $23.7 billion in 2022.”
The various levels of economic progress exhibited by countries within APAC will help maintain the market for PV modules, in spite of a dip in the Chinese market. China, the largest market for solar PV is expected to see a decline in its market value, at a negative CAGR of 14.8% over the forecast period.
Rajasekaram adds: “In order to counter the superfluous capacity deployment of solar, which has transformed into a cost burden, the government proposed removing subsidies for utility scale projects and moving towards a competitive bidding market. Other countries in APAC, in particular in the Southeast, would drive the market, which is estimated to be $13.4bn in 2022.”
Over the forecast period, the EMEA region is projected to have the utmost solar PV installation growth rate of 7.5%. The European market is projected to hold stable over the forecast period, with Germany, France and Turkey contributing to the capacity addition.
Rajasekaram concludes: “The solar PV module market is projected to slow down, due to reduced installations in major markets. Declining price trends and environmental impact concerns of power generation would create new growth prospects in emerging nations. However, financial support and market restructuring to attract investments are critical for proliferation in countries. In addition, the simultaneous development of power grid infrastructure would support higher installations; the current lack of suitable infrastructure is inhibiting large scale installation of solar PV.”
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