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energetica-india-57_asiapowerweek

RENEWABLE ENERGY SUBODH MATHUR ADJUNCT PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY, WASHINGTON, DC India’s economic future is based on renewable energy and fossil fuels In a recent post, I had concluded that India’s new oil and gas exploration is a welcome step and will help to shore up India’s energy security, especially in the face of growing energy demand in the country. Now let’s see how India’s demand for oil is forecast to grow. The chart above is from Bloomberg, using data from the International Energy Agency. It shows: • India’s usage rising faster than China’s usage. • China’s usage remaining above India’s. The International Energy Agency concluded in November 2015: 1. Oil use increases by 6 million barrels per day as new passenger vehicles are added to the stock and as LPG substitutes for fuelwood as a cooking fuel in households. 2. Industry remains the largest among the end-use sectors, as India’s strong demand for infrastructure and consumer goods boosts the outlook for manufacturing. 3. Putting industry at the heart of India’s growth model means a large rise in the energy needed to fuel development, at least 10-times more energy per unit of value added compared with growth led by the services sector. 4. Demand growth on this scale brings new environmental strains, including the risk of worsening air quality. In reaching this conclusion, the Agency had accounted for India’s push for renewable energy. The Agency wrote: • India has ambitious plans to expand the deployment of wind and solar power. The targeted levels of deployment (160 GW by 2022, of which 100 GW is solar) are a powerful statement of intent, though a challenging set of issues related to land acquisition, remuneration, network expansion and financing means that these are not met within the announced timeframe. By 2040, however, some 340 GW of wind and solar capacity are added, making India the world’s second-largest solar market. In our projections, India achieves its climate pledge that 40% of the installed power generation capacity in 2030 is non-fossil fuel. In other words, India’s economic development is based on increased use of both fossil fuels and renewable energy �� 62 energetica INDIA · MAR16


energetica-india-57_asiapowerweek
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