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RENEWABLE ENERGY From Energetica India’s Blog Stable; Jan/Feb 2016 Energetica India brings forward the work of bloggers and contributors associated with Energetica India. The article collates thoughts/ideas/concepts based on the writers’ industry experience. MR. PRASAD DAHAPUTE MANAGING DIRECTOR, VARHAD CAPITAL PVT LTD. ENERGETICA INDIA We (India) can achieve COP21 commitment by 2024 India has committed 35% of its electricity to be produced through renewable energy by 2030. After going through Government of India’s numbers, it looks that transport is considered to be diesel/petrol dependent rather than electricity. According to Varhad Research, India will need massive 5,000TWh or (5,000bn kWh) of electricity for energy and transport. Today only 12TWh of electricity is consumed by Indian Railways and Metro Corporations (Mass Rapid Transit Systems). How can Indian Government miss the transport demand of electricity? Indian Government was among few governments to announce Electric Vehicle initiative in 2012 but it was notified by the Government April 2015. This is massive initiative of committing INR7.65bn (USD120m) by Mar 2017 in grants and subsidies to consumers and electric vehicle makers under the scheme of faster manufacturing of Electric Vehicles in India. Its own mission 2020, talks about 6-7m electric vehicles sales by 2020. Assuming that India achieves annual sales of 6-7m electric vehicles (EV) by 2030, with EV population of 30m. India will need 2,000TWh of electricity for its surface transport itself. We have not assumed any demand from shipping and aviation in this estimate. What is India’s COP21 commitment? Indian Government has committed 35% of energy (electricity) to be produced through renewable energy. As per our estimates, India needs to produce 1,750TWh (1,750bn kWh) of renewable energy by 2030. To be precise, Central Electricity Authority expects Indian utilities to produce 1,137TWh of electricity in FY16 (financial year from Apr2015-Mar2016). It means India will have to add Renewable Energy capacity of 700GW from current 36GW. We have also assumed 1MW of (solar or wind) capacity to produce 2.5GWh of electricity against 1.8GWh that is achieved today. Basically we have assumed massive 33% energy efficiency improvement in solar and wind energy by 2020. That’s where we need to ask this question to ourselves? Indian Government has committed 35% of energy (electricity) to be produced through renewable energy. As per our estimates, India needs to produce 1,750TWh (1,750bn kWh) of renewable energy by 2030 On other hand, we expect India to need 3,000TWh of energy demand and only 1,050TWh of electricity by 2024. This energy is equal to 420GW of renewable capacity through solar and wind. Can India add 420GW of solar and wind capacity by 2024? Considering INR65m (USD1m) per MW of capacity of solar and wind, India will have to complete capital expenditure of INR24.96tn (USD384bn). Looking at India’s high growth rate as well as healthy savings rate, India should be able to achieve this capital expenditure easily by 2024) We will also need to invest INR13tn (USD200bn) in transmission and energy storage hardware (also software). Will this Renewable energy expansion be a money spinner idea? Who will spend this kind of money in Indian energy sector? We have seen stupendous response to all auctions conducted under National Solar Mission. Indian as well as multi national utilities have participated in these 3GW auctions aggressively this 66 energetica INDIA · JAN | FEB16


energetica-india-55
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