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ENERGETICA INDIA Understanding Poland Renewable Market The IRENA REmap 2030 for Poland analyses for Poland’s roadmap for renewable energy. Poland’s energy policy to 2030 was adopted by the Polish government on 10 November 2009 and indicates support for the sustainable use of renewable energy. It contains a 15%. renewable energy target for final energy consumption by 2020, which includes a 10% biofuels share in the transport sector. The details of these binding renewable energy targets are provided in Poland’s National Renewable Energy Action Plan NREAP, which is part of its contribution to the EU 20/20/20 goals. Wind Wind onshore and offshore potential is located in the Baltic Sea region, the site of most of Poland’s wind farms at present Average wind speeds are 2-3 metres per second greater in the Baltic Sea region compared to mainland Poland. A large body of studies has considered wind deployment potential in Poland. The Gdansk Maritime Institute indicates the technical potential of the Polish Maritime Area and the Exclusive Economic Zone is 20 GW. However, a correction accounting for the Natura 2000 network zones cuts that potential to 7.5 GW. A study prepared by the Polish Prime Minister’s office indicated a technical onshore wind potential in 2030 at 31.5 GW. For offshore wind, the Polish Wind Energy Association (2010) and European Wind Energy Association (2014) estimate 500- 1500 MW by 2020. Total installed capacity in 2013 for onshore wind amounted to 3 390 MW, while no offshore wind has yet been installed. The estimates imply annual installation rates of 500-1 230 MW for onshore and 140-330 MW for offshore wind. Poland’s NREAP envisages an annual installation rate of 490 MW between 2010 and 2020. This falls to an annual rate of 120 MW in 2020-2030. For offshore wind, annual installation rates are 20 MW and 37 MW in 2010-20 and 2020-2030, respectively. REmap estimates an annual onshore wind growth of about 675 MW in 2010-2030, a rate about 50% higher than NREAP estimates. However, these rates have been achieved in 2012-2013 and are therefore found to be realistic. For offshore wind, the annual installation rate is 110 MW in 2010-2030. These growth rates are at the low end of the range in a number of studies, however, would still require significant effort beyond the NREAP projections. The first onshore wind farms in Poland were very small. In 2012, the average plant size was only about 3.5 MW per farm. In 2030, they will be larger at 10-100 MW, and even bigger wind parks of up to 500 MW will be evolving. Offshore wind farms will be larger than onshore, possibly attaining capacities of about 500 MW per farm. It is expected that with the auction system, wind onshore plants would be deployed first to 2020. Hydropower The annual economic potential of hydropower generation is estimated at 8.5 TWh. These exceed the potential in REmap 2030 of hydropower generation at 4.5 TWh. This translates to 1.5 GW installed in 2030 compared to 0.96 GW in 2010. Hydropower today is mainly associated with two rivers. The Vistula provides 52% and the Oder provides 11% of the total hydropower technical potential. It is therefore expected that the majority of deployment associated with REmap 2030 will relate to these two rivers. The average size of hydropower plants was 1.2 MW in 2012. The average installed capacity for small hydropower was about 0.4 MW. For large hydro- power it was about 20 MW. By 2020 and 2030, no major changes are assumed for the average installed capacity of hydropower plants. Solar PV Deployment of solar PV could follow the trend in Germany but with some delay in deployment given the rather limited solar potential and economic incentives for investors in Poland. REmap 2030 assumes an annual installation rate of 1% of the total peak demand for solar PV (250 MW in 2010-2030). Poland’s peak demand today is around 25 GW. In REmap 2030, Solar PV is deployed in 2020, assuming that recently introduced FiTs for microgeneration drive the deployment of rooftop solar PV. If concentrated solar power (CSP) is deployed, it will be limited to one or two demonstration facilities of small capacity. Solar PV will be evenly distributed throughout the country since average solar irradiation is more or less uniform across Poland. Northern Poland lacks coal power plants, so this part of the country in particular requires renewable electricity generation. Onshore/ offshore wind would already meet some of this demand, and a contribution from utility scale solar PV can be expected. In 2012, the average installation size of solar PV systems was 156 kW per plant. These utility-scale solar PV plants would have an average installed capacity of about 0.5 MW by 2030. With the new Renewable Energy Act in Poland there will be a tendency in the next years to have smaller solar PV installations associated with distributed rooftop installations. Auction systems would support larger installations but most projects are to be deployed after 2020. Geothermal The geothermal potential in Poland is associated mainly with heating applications because geothermal sources are mostly low temperature. REmap 2030 estimates about 17 PJ for district heating, which will be the major application for geothermal energy in RENEWABLE ENERGY 56 energética INDIA · ENE | FEB16


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