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ANDRÉS SANDOVAL HEAD OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, AND ALVARO VELASCO, GLOBAL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AT ENERTIS Can the Indian market become one of the main solar markets in the world in 7 years? Or sooner? It is not a secret that India’s situation attracts the interest of many players in the Solar PV market, from local developers to global players. Many factors indicate that Solar will continue growing and that the goals established by Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi of 100 GW could be achieved. Here we elaborate on some key aspects of the market. Solar Market Size to date According to Bridge to India reports, by September 2015 the commissioned power totaled 4,6 GW, the pipeline of projects under development reached 8,7 GW and Tenders in process amounted to 4 GW. Ground mounted and roof mounted The 100 GW goal is divided in 40 GW on rooftops and 60 GW ground mounted. From the 2, roof mounted has a very small track record to date but is growing quickly According to Bridge to India website, the growth rate was 66% in the last 12 months, with 240 MW added in that period. Energy supply in India According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), between 2013&2014 India had a peak power shortage of 6.2%, and currently around 57% of the installed capacity corresponds to Coal generators. In regard to coal, the rapid increase in its use and downturn in production growth have caused that 25% of the coal currently used in India is imported and thermal coal represents about 80% of the total imports. At this moment, according to KPMG report (“The rising Sun”–2015), levelized solar prices are within 15% of coal generation prices. KPMG even predicts Solar prices being 10% lower than those of coal by 2020. Solar resource A map based on satellite data is available as a result of the collaboration between SEC (Solar Energy Centre) and NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory–US). The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy in India also plans to expand the network of ground stations in order to enhance the accuracy of investment grade data available for Solar developers and States to be used for investment decisions. Global Horizontal Irradiation is between the range of 1,700 to 2,100 kWh/m2 (approximately ). In regard to the best areas in terms of solar irradiation, west and center of the country feature the higher values, so it is not surprising that the states of Gujarat and Rajasthan were the first ones to start with the development of Solar PV. Energy pricing & competitiveness Tenders for solar Energy have been awarded at levels down to 77 USD/MWh, until SunEdison won a record breaking bid at 70 USD/MWh (4.63 rupees/kWh) in the month of November. Although this record low was unexpected, it gives an indication on the capability of Solar Energy to continue the trend of price reduction. Taking a look at the cost related aspects of a Solar PV power plant, we can think that this trend will continue in the following years. Firstly the cost of materials such as commodities for mounting structures -(Iron, Aluminium) and also needed for BOS electrical configuration (cabling, among others) does not look like going up considering the global macroeconomic environment; and secondly the advances in cost optimization in the technical solution, like the changes to 1,500 V inverters & modules, the effect of improving SOLAR POWER 28 energética INDIA · NOV | DEC15


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