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Energética India | September / October 2015

tinued its impressive growth. After years of tremendous developments, the market in Europe slowed down in 2013 and this trend continued in 2014. It can be explained in part by the influence of transitioning policies. With around 7 GW installed, Europe as a whole is now installing less solar power capacity than China or Japan individually, but more than the USA. However Europe is still the predominant player with more than 88 GW installed at the end of 2014. The 2014 solar PV markets showed a perfect balance between utility scale installations and distributed ones. Despite the huge interest in competitive calls for tender, the PV market remained balanced between producers and prosumers, demonstrating this unique capability of solar PV to offer a solution to diverse needs: powering a light bulb with a few watts, to offering an alternative to new conventional plants of hundreds of megawatts. While an important part of the 2014 growth was shadowed by the decrease of the European market, 2015 could see a major increase in solar installation numbers globally. In 2015, the level of installations in China will frame the global growth. After two years below targets, the Chinese government decided to raise the official PV installation target to 17.8 GW in 2015. The probability of seeing this target being reached remains conditional on many developments, and especially the take-off of distributed solar power. Without unlocking this market segment, China could have difficulties to achieve this ambitious 2015 target despite the impressive 5 GW installed in Q1 2015. 2017 could then be a year of market stagnation with the expected end of the tax break regulation in the US and the end of the market boom in Japan. While none of them can be taken for granted, they illustrate the uncertainties on the mediumterm PV market development. Global Solar PV Annual Market Scenarios till 2019 Installations in MW 2014 2019 High Scenario 40,134 86,494 Low Scenario 40,134 47,285 Figure 1: Global Solar PV Annual Market Scenarios till 2019 Global Solar PV Cumulative Market Scenario until 2019 Installations in MW 2014 2019 High Scenario 178,391 540,009 Low Scenario 178,391 396,146 Figure 2: Global Solar PV Cumulative Market Scenario until 2019 Scenarios for Solar PV Rooftop and Utility Scale Segments Development until 2019 Rooftop Installations Installations in MW 2014 2019 High Scenario 19,050 37,146 Low Scenario 19,050 23,206 Utility Scale Installations in MW 2014 2019 High Scenario 21,084 49,348 Low Scenario 21,084 24,079 Figure 3: Scenarios for Solar PV Rooftop and Utility Scale Segments Development until 2019 The 2014 solar PV markets showed a perfect balance between utility scale installations and distributed ones In the longer term, after 2018, growth should resume based on the expected contribution of dozens of countries attracted by competitive PV, including India and its ambition to develop solar PV. The probability of experiencing an important market growth in 2015, followed by two years of stable installations remains quite high. However a combination of negative policy decisions in key countries, or the difficulties of PV to take off fast enough in emerging markets, could lead to a market stagnation around 40 to 50 GW in the future. Depending on the evolution of the solar markets in the coming years, the total installed capacity in 2019 could reach between 396 and 540 GW with the highest probability scenario being around 450 GW. Historically PW development has been driven by distributed installations. The price decrease and the rise of feed-in tariff policies have rapidly rebalanced distributed and centralized installations. In 2013, utility scale PV grew to the extent of becoming the first segment installed globally, while in 2014, both types of installations were balanced, with around 20 GW each. The respective development of each segment will depend on regulatory choices but looking at current trends the global development of utility scale solar power seems to be favoured, driven by its increasing cost-competitiveness. The rate of PV penetration has been repeatedly forecast, and in most cases the final results were underestimated. In 2014, the International Energy Agency published scenarios in which solar (PV and Concentrated Solar Power) could become the first source of electricity in the world. this is dependent on several key conditions, but it reflects the growing awareness of PV’s capability to offer cheap and reliable electricity. In 2011, the PV industry already stated that PV could represent up to 21% of the global electricity demand before 2050, under an assumption of managed electricity growth SOLAR POWER 36 energetica INDIA · SEP | OCT15


Energética India | September / October 2015
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